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The Arena for Accountable Predictions - Long Bets

“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”. “By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”

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Reviewed on Nov 6st, 2014
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    hackingnetflix.com Hacking NetFlix : Netflix Helps Win Video-on-Demand Bet from 2002

    On April 25th, 2002 Jim Griffin (Cherry Lane Digital & EVO Lab) made a bet on Longbets.org with Gordon Bell (Microsoft) that "A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010.” Since Netflix has more than 10,000 titles and almost 17... Read article

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    parc.com Event - Long Bets - PARC, a Xerox company

    The Long Bets Foundation will grow the stakes over the term of the bet (using half the growth to support the process) and publicize the eventual outcome, then raising the question in public, "What can be learned from this bet." Play at http://www.longbets.org/ . Long Bets PARC Forum Practicing o... Read article

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    rs.resalliance.org Allyson Quinlan | Resilience Science | Page 2

    Neat stuff can be found at: http://www.longbets.org/ and http://www.longnow.org/ , which is the home of the Long Now Foundation, parent of the Long Bets site. The idea is to engage short cycle thinking about the long term, and to build long-term social responsibility through learning. Some very c... Read article

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    magazine.good.is Thinking About the Future

    The situation in futurism is fairly dismal, but it is improving slowly. The Long Now foundation has a site called Longbets.org , where in order to make a prediction about the future, you have to put your money where your mouth is. Takeonit.com is a collaborative project to at least record expert ... Read article

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    archive.wired.com Wired 10.05: Long Bets

    These three bets are among those awaiting their matches at www.longbets.org . Will anyone risk $1,000? THE END OF "EVERYTHING" Neither superstring theory, membrane theory, nor any other unified theory describing all the forces of nature will have won a Nobel Prize by 2020. The Stake: $1,000 DESIG... Read article

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    adactio.com Adactio: Articles—Beyond Tellerrand

    So I’ve got a prediction that was challenged and turned into a bet, here’s the URL: longbets.org/601 , and this is the text of my prediction/bet. The original URL of this prediction will not exist in eleven years. So I made the bet in February 2011, so this is the date that it runs out: 22 Februa... Read article

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    aussiestockforums.com Buy 'n Hold vs. active investing hedge funds - Aussie Stock Forums

    I see someone has taken Mr. Buffett up on his offer from a few years ago, $1,000,000 is on offer. Possibly this has been talked about here before, me being a newcomer and all, if so, I apologise in advance. http://www.longbets.org/362 Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and endi... Read article

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    affarsvarlden.se Affärsvärlden

    Därför satsar Buffett på börsen Magnaten Warren Buffett har slagit vad med en hedgefond att börsen över tid utklassar en portfölj med hedgefonder. Vinnaren tar hem en miljon dollar. På sajten Longbets.org kan medlemmarna slå vad om händelser på lång sikt. Investeraren Warren Buffett har slagit va... Read article

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    heise-online.mobi Technology Review - Kollision mit der Wirklichkeit

    Brand verdient allerdings Anerkennung für seine Motivation: „Wenn sich die Fakten, ändere ich meine Meinung.“ Ausdrücklich stellt er sich auch der Kritik an seinen Prognosen: Jeder kann auf der Webseite Longbets.org schreiben, wo Brand falsch liegt. Was hat ihn dazu bewogen, seine alten Ansichten... Read article

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    investing.curiouscatblog.net Avoiding Hedge Fund Investments is One of the Benefits of Being in the 99% at Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog

    … Buffett’s argument, like the large pension funds, is that funds of hedge funds cost too much, according to a statement he posted on longbets.org , a website backed by the nonprofit Long Now Foundation that fosters “long-term thinking.” In addition to the 2 percent management fee and 20 percent ... Read article

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    citycaucus.com 12 minutes, 30 seconds with @FairQuestions Vivian Krause - CityCaucus.com

    Happy to take a bet on this at http://longbets.org/ The point of Longbets is to get people on record from both points of view or more. My point of view is that there is nothing behind the accusations that Tides has illegally moved money between various organizations. I read a little of the Q&A se... Read article

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    gottahavacuppamocha.com Neutrality : gottahavacuppamocha

    A few years ago, I came across a website called longbets.org . It’s a place where people make bets that certain things will happen in a certain timeframe, or that A will happen before B with no idea how long it might take for it to happen. The bet that caught my interest was one between Mike Elli... Read article

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    econlog.econlib.org A Betting Arena, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

    A Betting Arena. Comments and Sharing. Since Bryan is impressed with people who bet on their ideas, I thought I would remind folks about longbets , a site that encourages exactly that, focused on long-term predictions. For example, Kevin Kelly writes , The biggest driver of the shift from large f... Read article

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    computus.org January | 2007 | The Computus Engine

    With a membership that reads like a who’s who of successful bay area tech entrepreneurs they have had the funding to tackle some unique and fascinating projects. I read his book, ‘The Long Now’ a few years ago and found the ideas and projects very interesting. His talk covered much the same groun... Read article

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    good.is Thinking About the Future - Technology - GOOD

    The situation in futurism is fairly dismal, but it is improving slowly. The Long Now foundation has a site called Longbets.org , where in order to make a prediction about the future, you have to put your money where your mouth is. Takeonit.com is a collaborative project to at least record expert ... Read article

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